Macomb County Cross Country Rankings...from Glenn Craze
A quick note on the rankings:
The rankings are purely statistical, not based on head to head match ups, and are based on a runners two best course-adjusted efforts of the season. They really show a runners potential more than their actual results at any one point in the season. A runner who has two very good races and 10 bad ones may be ranked higher than somebody who has 12 pretty good races. The reason my prediction picks usually don't match the rankings is because I have a tendency to pick more consistent runners.
It's not a science, but I try to stay objective, and use statistical analysis to come up with each race's adjustments. Over the years, I think I've gotten better at figuring course adjustments, but again it is not a perfect system. Races are won and lost on the grass, not on the computer! The rankings are really more to start discussions, and should not be perceived as "predictions".
I rate each individual runner in Macomb. Each runner's time is course/condition adjusted (more art than science). To get a runners rating, I do the following:
1) if a runner has only one race rated, his adjusted time is his ranking.
2) if a runner has two or more races, I take the best two races, and the average of those is his rating (as long as the differential between the two best runs is 30 seconds or less).
3) if a runner has two or more races, but the differential between his best is over 30 seconds, I use his best adjusted time plus 15 seconds (the more inconsistent runners)
4) occasionally, I will manually tweak rankings based on head-to-head match-ups (happens sometimes), or if a runner's recent results show he is not improving (more rare). The more results I have, the better chance I have of getting more accurate rankings
The system is set up to rate individual runners, not teams, but if you do everybody (as I do), you can put them all together as if you are running a virtual County Meet.
A final note: the ratings are actually the runners expected time (in seconds) for a 5k on a relatively flat course in good conditions.
The rankings are purely statistical, not based on head to head match ups, and are based on a runners two best course-adjusted efforts of the season. They really show a runners potential more than their actual results at any one point in the season. A runner who has two very good races and 10 bad ones may be ranked higher than somebody who has 12 pretty good races. The reason my prediction picks usually don't match the rankings is because I have a tendency to pick more consistent runners.
It's not a science, but I try to stay objective, and use statistical analysis to come up with each race's adjustments. Over the years, I think I've gotten better at figuring course adjustments, but again it is not a perfect system. Races are won and lost on the grass, not on the computer! The rankings are really more to start discussions, and should not be perceived as "predictions".
I rate each individual runner in Macomb. Each runner's time is course/condition adjusted (more art than science). To get a runners rating, I do the following:
1) if a runner has only one race rated, his adjusted time is his ranking.
2) if a runner has two or more races, I take the best two races, and the average of those is his rating (as long as the differential between the two best runs is 30 seconds or less).
3) if a runner has two or more races, but the differential between his best is over 30 seconds, I use his best adjusted time plus 15 seconds (the more inconsistent runners)
4) occasionally, I will manually tweak rankings based on head-to-head match-ups (happens sometimes), or if a runner's recent results show he is not improving (more rare). The more results I have, the better chance I have of getting more accurate rankings
The system is set up to rate individual runners, not teams, but if you do everybody (as I do), you can put them all together as if you are running a virtual County Meet.
A final note: the ratings are actually the runners expected time (in seconds) for a 5k on a relatively flat course in good conditions.
BOYSOctober 10, 2016
10-Oct -- RANK -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- 0982.5 -- Steven Stine -- fras -- (12) 02 -- 0992.0 -- Chase Fedolak -- dak -- (12) 03 -- 0996.5 -- Gabe Garbino -- utic -- (12) 04 -- 0998.5 -- Logan Hefferan -- ike -- (12) 05 -- 1004.5 -- Dylan Hanson -- ford -- (11) 06 -- 1005.5 -- Jalen Smith -- fras -- (11) 07 -- 1009.5 -- Zac Truman -- ike -- (11) 08 -- 1010.0 -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) 09 -- 1010.0 -- Michael Zedan -- abay -- (11) 10 -- 1012.0 -- Alex Tonn -- lv -- (12) 11 -- 1012.5 -- Mitchell MacDonald -- dak -- (12) 12 -- 1014.0 -- Evan Tonn -- lv -- (12) 13 -- 1014.5 -- Brennan Brothers -- ike -- (12) 14 -- 1019.5 -- Joshua VanSlambrouck -- dak -- (11) 15 -- 1020.0 -- Michael Burley -- sh -- (12) 16 -- 1020.5 -- Zachary MacDonald -- dak -- (12) 17 -- 1020.5 -- Thomas Michno -- lcn -- (12) 18 -- 1021.0 -- Joshua Jaster -- dak -- (12) 19 -- 1022.0 -- Jacob Schaldenbrand -- lcn -- (12) 20 -- 1023.0 -- Alex Towianski -- ford -- (12) 21 -- 1024.0 -- Nick Behring -- rom -- (11) 22 -- 1026.0 -- Andrew Goodrich -- rom -- (11) 23 -- 1029.0 -- Thomas Szymanski -- dak -- (12) 24 -- 1033.0 -- Peter Freeman -- lthnor -- (12) 25 -- 1035.0 -- Omar Uddin -- sh -- (12) 26 -- 1037.5 -- David Walker -- dak -- (11) 27 -- 1039.0 -- Jarret St John -- rom -- (11) 28 -- 1041.0 -- Nathan Jarski -- dls -- (11) 29 -- 1044.0 -- Brian Jones -- ike -- (10) 30 -- 1045.5 -- Brandon Hilliker -- stv -- (11) 31 -- 1046.5 -- Chandler Witt -- dls -- (12) 32 -- 1047.5 -- Jordan Hill -- ls -- (12) 33 -- 1048.0 -- Austin Chambe -- ls -- (12) 34 -- 1050.0 -- Charlie Wilson -- rom -- (9) 35 -- 1050.5 -- Jeffrey Hitchcock -- utic -- (10) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Dakota -- 61 2 -- Eisenhower -- 90 3 -- Romeo -- 112 4 -- Lakeview -- 155 5 -- Utica -- 199 6 -- Fraser -- 203 7 -- DeLaSalle -- 209 NEW TO THE TOP 21 10/10 -- 10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 19 -- 23 -- Jacob Schaldenbrand -- lcn -- (12) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 10/10 -- 10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 24 -- 11 -- Peter Freeman -- lthnor -- (12) TOP FRESHMEN 10/10 -- 10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 08 -- 08 -- Jack Wilson -- Rom -- (9) 34 -- 28 -- Charlie Wilson -- Rom -- (9) 50 -- 50 -- Noah Verlinde -- Arm -- (9) 72 -- 71 -- Ryan Brown -- LC -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 10/10 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 40 -- Jacob Hatcher -- Rich -- (11) -- DNR meet You may notice this weeks rankings have some significant differences from last week. This is due to me dropping off results that are more than 4 weeks old. Thus there is some shifting in the order of the individuals, but the players pretty much remained the same. October 3, 2016
10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- 01 -- Steven Stine -- Fras -- (12) 02 -- Chase Fedolak -- Dak -- (12) 03 -- Gabe Garbino -- Utic -- (12) 04 -- Dylan Hanson -- HFII -- (11) 05 -- Logan Hefferan -- Ike -- (12) 06 -- Jalen Smith -- Fras -- (11) 07 -- Alex Tonn -- LV -- (12) 08 -- Jack Wilson -- Rom -- (9) 09 -- Michael Burley -- SH -- (12) 10 -- Evan Tonn -- LV -- (12) 11 -- Peter Freeman -- LuNo -- (12) 12 -- Thomas Michno -- LCN -- (12) 13 -- Michael Zedan -- Abay -- (11) 14 -- Zac Truman -- Ike -- (11) 15 -- Brennan Brothers -- Ike -- (12) 16 -- Alex Towianski -- HFII -- (12) 17 -- Mitchell MacDonald -- Dak -- (12) 18 -- Joshua Jaster -- Dak -- (12) 19 -- Joshua VanSlambrouck -- Dak -- (11) 20 -- Nick Behring -- Rom -- (11) 21 -- Zachary MacDonald -- Dak -- (12) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Dakota -- 77 2 -- Eisenhower -- 96 3 -- Romeo -- 117 4 -- Lakeview -- 147 5 -- Utica -- 208 6 -- Henry Ford II -- 216 7 -- DeLaSalle -- 220 NEW TO THE TOP 21 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 08 -- 22 -- Jack Wilson -- Rom -- (9) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 22 -- 21 -- Brian Jones -- Ike -- (10) TOP FRESHMEN 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 08 -- 22 -- Jack Wilson -- Rom -- (9) 28 -- 25 -- Charlie Wilson -- Rom -- (9) 50 -- 52 -- Noah Verlinde -- Arm -- (9) 71 -- 67 -- Ryan Brown -- LC -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 40 -- Jacob Hatcher -- Rich -- (11) -- DNR meet Not a whole lot of movement on the boy's side, individually or teamwise. The most significant change was the emergence of frosh Jack Wilson from Romeo, who had a breakout race on Saturday, which moved him up 14 spots in the rankings. It appears he will contend for a spot on the 1st Team All-County roster. Doesn't happen too often with Freshman boys. September 26, 2016
9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- Steven Stine -- fras -- (12) 02 -- Chase Fedolak -- dak -- (12) 03 -- Gabe Garbino -- utic -- (12) 04 -- Alex Tonn -- lv -- (12) 05 -- Logan Hefferan -- ike -- (12) 06 -- Dylan Hanson -- ford -- (11) 07 -- Peter Freeman -- lthnor -- (12) 08 -- Thomas Michno -- lcn -- (12) 09 -- Michael Burley -- sh -- (12) 10 -- Evan Tonn -- lv -- (12) 11 -- Michael Zedan -- abay -- (11) 12 -- Zac Truman -- ike -- (11) 13 -- Jalen Smith -- fras -- (11) 14 -- Brennan Brothers -- ike -- (12) 15 -- Nick Behring -- rom -- (11) 16 -- Mitchell MacDonald -- dak -- (12) 17 -- Joshua Jaster -- dak -- (12) 18 -- Joshua VanSlambrouck -- dak -- (11) 19 -- Zachary MacDonald -- dak -- (12) 20 -- Alex Towianski -- ford -- (12) 21 -- Brian Jones -- ike -- (10) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Dakota -- 72 2 -- Eisenhower -- 95 3 -- Romeo -- 128 4 -- Lakeview -- 133 5 -- Utica -- 205 6 -- Henry Ford II -- 223 7 -- DeLaSalle -- 230 NEW TO THE TOP 21 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 18 -- 24 -- Joshua VanSlambrouck -- dak -- (11) 19 -- 26 -- Zachary MacDonald -- dak -- (12) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 22 -- 20 -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) 24 -- 21 -- Austin Chambe -- ls -- (12) TOP FRESHMEN 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 22 -- 20 -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) 25 -- 22 -- Charlie Wilson -- rom -- (9) 52 -- 50 -- Noah Verlinde -- arm -- (9) 67 -- 70 -- Ryan Brown -- lc -- (9) 80 -- 78 -- Drew Kolodge -- abay -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 40 -- Jacob Hatcher -- rich -- (11) -- DNR meet Not a lot of movement in the rankings this week, runners are starting to get fit and slot in their "zones". Though Dakota is probably the favorite right now (5 ranked in the top 21), the other top 4 teams all have a shot at the County title in just under 3 weeks, should be fun! Note - Remember I adjust times for fast courses and slow courses alike, and average out each runners 2 best races of the last 3 weeks. Head-to-head competition can be a consideration, but only if the runners average times are very close. September 19, 2016
9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- RANK 01 -- Steven Stine -- fras -- (12) -- 974.0 02 -- Gabe Garbino -- utic -- (12) -- 987.5 03 -- Alex Tonn -- lv -- (12) -- 991.5 04 -- Dylan Hanson -- ford -- (11) -- 1006.5 05 -- Peter Freeman -- lthnor -- (12) -- 1006.5 06 -- Thomas Michno -- lcn -- (12) -- 1007.0 07 -- Michael Burley -- sh -- (12) -- 1008.0 08 -- Evan Tonn -- lv -- (12) -- 1008.5 09 -- Michael Zedan -- abay -- (11) -- 1011.5 10 -- Chase Fedolak -- dak -- (12) -- 1012.5 11 -- Jalen Smith -- fras -- (11) -- 1012.5 12 -- Brennan Brothers -- ike -- (12) -- 1012.5 13 -- Zac Truman -- ike -- (11) -- 1013.0 14 -- Logan Hefferan -- ike -- (12) -- 1014.0 15 -- Nick Behring -- rom -- (11) -- 1018.0 16 -- Mitchell Macdonald -- dak -- (12) -- 1019.0 17 -- Alex Towianski -- ford -- (12) -- 1027.0 18 -- Brian Jones -- ike -- (10) -- 1030.5 19 -- Joshua Jaster -- dak -- (12) -- 1033.0 20 -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) -- 1035.5 21 -- Austin Chambe -- ls -- (12) -- 1040.0 TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Dakota -- 095 2 -- Eisenhower -- 096 3 -- Romeo -- 130 4 -- Lakeview -- 135 5 -- Utica -- 202 6 -- Henry Ford II -- 211 7 -- Fraser -- 227 NEW TO THE TOP 21 9/19 -- 9/7 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 10 -- 22 -- Chase Fedolak -- dak -- (12) 18 -- 23 -- Brian Jones -- ike -- (10) 19 -- 26 -- Joshua Jaster -- dak -- (12) 21 -- 25 -- Austin Chambe -- ls -- (12) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 9/19 -- 9/7 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 23 -- 18 -- Chandler Witt -- dls -- (12) 25 -- 04 -- Jacob Schaldenbrand -- lcn -- (12) 77 -- 21 -- Jared Folden -- sh -- (11) NR -- 12 -- Brenden Allen -- rom -- (11) Xfer to Romeo from Armada TOP FRESHMEN 9/19 -- 9/7 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 20 -- 20 -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) 22 -- 27 -- Charlie Wilson -- rom -- (9) 50 -- NR -- Noah Verlinde -- arm -- (9) 70 -- 80 -- Ryan Brown -- lc -- (9) 78 -- 68 -- Drew Kolodge -- abay -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2014 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 9/19 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 24 -- Brendan Mousseau -- dak -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 40 -- Jacob Hatcher -- rich -- (11) -- DNR meet Rankings are getting more stable now with more results in. A virtual dead heat for the top boys' team ranks between Dakota and Eisenhower, will be a lot of fun in a few weeks to see them go at it! Romeo and Lakeview are well within striking distance also. Stine takes over as the new #1 Individual, but again no clear cut favorite on the boy's side yet. September 7, 2016
9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- Thomas Michno -- lcn -- (12) 02 -- Michael Burley -- sh -- (12) 03 -- Steven Stine -- fras -- (12) 04 -- Jacob Schaldenbrand -- lcn -- (12) 05 -- Alex Tonn -- lv -- (12) 06 -- Gabe Garbino -- utic -- (12) 07 -- Peter Freeman -- lthnor -- (12) 08 -- Michael Zedan -- abay -- (11) 09 -- Evan Tonn -- lv -- (12) 10 -- Dylan Hanson -- ford -- (11) 11 -- Brennan Brothers -- ike -- (12) 12 -- Brenden Allen -- arm -- (11) 13 -- Logan Hefferan -- ike -- (12) 14 -- Zac Truman -- ike -- (11) 15 -- Nick Behring -- rom -- (11) 16 -- Mitchell Macdonald -- dak -- (12) 17 -- Alex Towianski -- ford -- (12) 18 -- Chandler Witt -- dls -- (12) 19 -- Jalen Smith -- fras -- (11) 20 -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) 21 -- Jared Folden -- sh -- (11) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Eisenhower -- 99 2 -- Dakota -- 116 3 -- Romeo -- 145 4 -- Lakeview -- 148 5 -- Sterling Heights -- 169 6 -- Utica -- 210 7 -- Henry Ford II -- 221 NEW TO THE TOP 21 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 10 -- 31 -- Dylan Hanson -- ford -- (11) 14 -- 32 -- Zac Truman -- ike -- (11) 17 -- 22 -- Alex Towianski -- ford -- (12) 18 -- 43 -- Chandler Witt -- dls -- (12) 19 -- 47 -- Jalen Smith -- fras -- (11) 20 -- NR -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 22 -- 08 -- Chase Fedolak -- dak -- (12) 26 -- 18 -- Joshua Jaster -- dak -- (12) 32 -- 14 -- Jeffrey Hitchcock -- utic -- (10) 33 -- 18 -- Zachary Macdonald -- dak -- (12) 42 -- 18 -- Ray Bell -- utic -- (11) 54 -- 15 -- Andrew Goodrich -- rom -- (11) TOP FRESHMEN 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 20 -- NR -- Jack Wilson -- rom -- (9) 27 -- NR -- Charlie Wilson -- rom -- (9) 68 -- NR -- Drew Kolodge -- abay -- (9) 80 -- NR -- Ryan Brown -- lc -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN(NOT RANKED) 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- 01 -- Thomas Michno -- lcn -- (12) 02 -- 02 -- Michael Burley -- sh -- (12) 04 -- 04 -- Jacob Schaldenbrand -- lcn -- (12) 12 -- 12 -- Brenden Allen -- arm -- (11) 21 -- 21 -- Jared Folden -- sh -- (11) NR -- 24 -- Brendan Mousseau -- dak -- (12) -- DNR meet 34 -- 34 -- Omar Uddin -- sh -- (12) 40 -- 40 -- Jacob Hatcher -- rich -- (11) Eisenhower had a nice team run @ the Adams Invite to take over the team lead (ran head -to-head against a good Utica team and won). Sterling Heights has yet to post any results, so they are ranked based on their Preseason points. Top 7 teams shuffled a bit, but nothing major (pretty early yet) About 2/3rds of the teams have run at least one race to date. Rankings should start to stabilize a bit after the next two weekends. |
GirlsOctober 10, 2016
10-Oct -- RANK -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- 1140.0 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) 02 -- 1179.5 -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- (12) 03 -- 1182.0 -- Hannah Toner -- Rom -- (11) 04 -- 1186.0 -- Hannah Faustyn -- Dak -- (10) 05 -- 1219.0 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 06 -- 1222.5 -- Lexie Jorgens -- Ike -- (11) 07 -- 1231.0 -- Julia Knepper -- Rom -- (12) 08 -- 1234.5 -- Allyson Slone -- Dak -- (12) 09 -- 1238.0 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) 10 -- 1241.5 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 11 -- 1251.0 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 12 -- 1253.0 -- Betsy Lueck -- Reg -- (11) 13 -- 1254.0 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) 14 -- 1255.0 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 15 -- 1256.0 -- Kayla Little -- Ike -- (12) 16 -- 1268.5 -- Erin Golden -- Reg -- (11) 17 -- 1272.0 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) 18 -- 1272.5 -- Rylie Yager -- Dak -- (10) 19 -- 1276.5 -- Samantha Arnone -- Reg -- (11) 20 -- 1281.0 -- Elena Miller -- CV -- (10) 21 -- 1283.5 -- Michelle Ignatowski -- Reg -- (12) 22 -- 1284.0 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) 23 -- 1286.0 -- Megan Steif -- Reg -- (12) 24 -- 1289.0 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) 25 -- 1290.0 -- Katherine Greenberg -- ABay -- (10) 26 -- 1290.5 -- Haley Turpin -- LCN -- (11) 27 -- 1291.0 -- Emily Westphal -- ABay -- (12) 28 -- 1292.0 -- Jasmine Browning -- Reg -- (12) 29 -- 1297.0 -- Natalie Anderson -- LV -- (12) 30 -- 1299.0 -- Allison Greenwood -- SHPC -- (9) 31 -- 1301.0 -- Jillian Alongi -- ABay -- (12) 32 -- 1301.0 -- Chloe Jablonski -- WWT -- (10) 33 -- 1301.5 -- Lexi Dobbins -- Fra -- (9) 34 -- 1303.0 -- Sarah Luttenberger -- HFII -- (11) 35 -- 1305.5 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Romeo -- 64 2 -- Regina -- 91 3 -- Eisenhower -- 125 4 -- Dakota -- 125 5 -- Anchor Bay -- 156 6 -- Henry Ford II -- 158 7 -- Lutheran North -- 161 NEW TO THE TOP 21 10/10 -- 10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 17 -- NR -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 10/10 -- 10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 24 -- 20 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) TOP FRESHMEN 10/10 -- 10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 05 -- 07 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 10 -- 08 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 11 -- 14 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 14 -- 11 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 22 -- 22 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) 30 -- 31 -- Allison Greenwood -- SHPC -- (9) 33 -- 39 -- Lexi Dobbins -- Fra -- (9) 36 -- 35 -- Bree French -- ABay -- (9) 38 -- 33 -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 10/10 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 35 -- Starr Schroeder -- Rich -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 38 -- Emily Rhodes -- Dak -- (12) -- DNR meet Again, some shifting in individual and team places due to dropping off old results. This is the final ranking of the season. October 3, 2016
10/3 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- 01 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) 02 -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- (12) 03 -- Hannah Toner -- Rom -- (11) 04 -- Hannah Faustyn -- Dak -- (10) 05 -- Lexie Jorgens -- Ike -- (11) 06 -- Betsy Lueck -- Reg -- (11) 07 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 08 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 09 -- Allyson Slone -- Dak -- (12) 10 -- Julia Knepper -- Rom -- (12) 11 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 12 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) 13 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) 14 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 15 -- Kayla Little -- Ike -- (12) 16 -- Erin Golden -- Reg -- (11) 17 -- Rylie Yager -- Dak -- (10) 18 -- Michelle Ignatowski -- Reg -- (12) 19 -- Samantha Arnone -- Reg -- (11) 20 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) 21 -- Elena Miller -- CV -- (10) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Romeo -- 67 2 -- Regina -- 82 3 -- Dakota -- 132 4 -- Lutheran North -- 135 5 -- Eisenhower -- 150 6 -- Anchor Bay -- 157 7 -- Henry Ford II -- 159 NEW TO THE TOP 21 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 03 -- NR -- Hannah Toner -- Rom -- (11) 19 -- 32 -- Samantha Arnone -- Reg -- (11) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 25 -- 20 -- Emily Westphal -- ABay -- (12) 26 -- 21 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) TOP FRESHMEN 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 07 -- 06 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 08 -- 07 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 11 -- 09 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 14 -- 15 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 22 -- 23 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) 31 -- 41 -- Allison Greenwood -- SHPC -- (9) 33 -- 26 -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 35 -- 29 -- Bree French -- ABay -- (9) 39 -- 34 -- Lexi Dobbins -- Fra -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 10/3 -- 9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 02 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 35 -- Starr Schroeder -- Rich -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 38 -- Emily Rhodes -- Dak -- (12) -- DNR meet It appears that I got incorrect information on Hannah Toner (unranked the last two weeks), as she ran for Romeo at their last meet. Thus, on the strength of her performance, Romeo has reclaimed the #1 spot in the season rankings. Top seven teams remained the same with some slight shuffling, but mostly intact. Not a lot of big meets until the County Meet now, so there probably won't be a whole lot more movement. September 26, 2016
9/26 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- RANK 01 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) 02 -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- (12) 03 -- Hannah Faustyn -- Dak -- (10) 04 -- Lexie Jorgens -- Ike -- (11) 05 -- Betsy Lueck -- Reg -- (11) 06 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 07 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 08 -- Julia Knepper -- Rom -- (12) 09 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 10 -- Allyson Slone -- Dak -- (12) 11 -- Kayla Little -- Ike -- (12) 12 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) 13 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) 14 -- Erin Golden -- Reg -- (11) 15 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 16 -- Rylie Yager -- Dak -- (10) 17 -- Michelle Ignatowski -- Reg -- (12) 18 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) 19 -- Elena Miller -- CV -- (10) 20 -- Emily Westphal -- ABay -- (12) 21 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Regina -- 096 2 -- Romeo -- 100 3 -- Dakota -- 122 4 -- Eisenhower -- 127 5 -- Lutheran North -- 131 6 -- Anchor Bay -- 132 7 -- Henry Ford II -- 169 NEW TO THE TOP 21 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 19 -- 48 -- Elena Miller -- CV -- (10) 20 -- 24 -- Emily Westphal -- ABay -- (12) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 22 -- 19 -- Alana Patterson -- LuNo -- (12) 23 -- 21 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) TOP FRESHMEN 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 06 -- 07 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 07 -- 06 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 09 -- 09 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 15 -- 13 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 23 -- 21 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) 26 -- 23 -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 29 -- 35 -- Bree French -- ABay -- (9) 34 -- 29 -- Lexi Dobbins -- Fra -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 9/26 -- 9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 02 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 35 -- Starr Schroeder -- Rich -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 38 -- Emily Rhodes -- Dak -- (12) -- DNR meet This may be the closest race for the County title in a while, as the point spread is tightening up between the top 6 teams, no clear favorite yet. With the temperatures starting to dip, we should start seeing faster and more consistent times from the runners. September 19, 2016
9/19 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- RANK 01 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) -- 1134.5 02 -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- (12) -- 1160.0 03 -- Hannah Faustyn -- Dak -- (10) -- 1171.0 04 -- Lexie Jorgens -- Ike -- (11) -- 1180.0 05 -- Betsy Lueck -- Reg -- (11) -- 1220.0 06 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) -- 1224.0 07 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) -- 1226.5 08 -- Julia Knepper -- Rom -- (12) -- 1229.5 09 -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) -- 1234.0 10 -- Kayla Little -- Ike -- (12) -- 1239.5 11 -- Erin Golden -- Reg -- (11) -- 1253.0 12 -- Allyson Slone -- Dak -- (12) -- 1257.0 13 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) -- 1260.0 14 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) -- 1260.0 15 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) -- 1268.0 16 -- Michelle Ignatowski -- Reg -- (12) -- 1271.0 17 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) -- 1280.0 18 -- Rylie Yager -- Dak -- (10) -- 1280.0 19 -- Alana Patterson -- LuNo -- (12) -- 1284.0 20 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) -- 1288.0 21 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) -- 1296.0 TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Regina -- 89 2 -- Romeo -- 90 3 -- Lutheran North -- 120 4 -- Dakota -- 124 5 -- Eisenhower -- 139 6 -- Anchor Bay -- 142 7 -- Armada -- 177 NEW TO THE TOP 21 9/19 -- 9/7 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 09 -- NR -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 15 -- NR -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) 18 -- 96 -- Rylie Yager -- Dak -- (10) 21 -- 22 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 9/19 -- 9/7 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 23 -- 18 -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 25 -- 19 -- Megan Collins -- Ike -- (10) 32 -- 21 -- Izabella Gowen -- Dak -- (10) NR -- 03 -- Hannah Toner -- Rom -- (11) TOP FRESHMEN 9/19 -- 9/7 -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 06 -- 07 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 07 -- 08 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 09 -- NR -- Alaina Carroll -- Arm -- (9) 13 -- 12 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 21 -- 22 -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) 23 -- 18 -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 29 -- 28 -- Lexi Dobbins -- Fra -- (9) 35 -- NR -- Bree French -- ABay -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2014 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 9/19 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) NR -- 02 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 35 -- Starr Schroeder -- Rich -- (12) -- DNR meet NR -- 38 -- Emily Rhodes -- Dak -- (12) -- DNR meet EDIT - I have been informed that Hannah Toner is no longer running for Romeo. Thus, I have adjusted the individual and team rankings accordingly. The change in the Romeo lineup has caused team rankings to change up at the top with Regina taking over by the slimmest of margins. It should now be a hotly contested meet with 6-7 teams having the ability to win it all. A couple of more frosh have also popped up on the radar. The mess at the Holly Invite caused me some problems, but I think the rankings are pretty reflective of how things stand right now. September 7, 2016
9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) 02 -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- (12) 03 -- Hannah Toner -- Rom -- (11) 04 -- Hannah Faustyn -- Dak -- (10) 05 -- Lexie Jorgens -- Ike -- (11) 06 -- Betsy Lueck -- Reg -- (11) 07 -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 08 -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 09 -- Allyson Slone -- Dak -- (12) 10 -- Julia Knepper -- Rom -- (12) 11 -- Kayla Little -- Ike -- (12) 12 -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 13 -- Erin Golden -- Reg -- (11) 14 -- Michelle Ignatowski -- Reg -- (12) 15 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) 16 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) 17 -- Alana Patterson -- LuNo -- (12) 18 -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 19 -- Megan Collins -- Ike -- (10) 20 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) 21 -- Izabella Gowen -- Dak -- (10) TEAM RANKINGS (WITH PROJECTED COUNTY MEET POINTS) 1 -- Romeo -- 51 2 -- Regina -- 88 3 -- Lutheran North -- 108 4 -- Eisenhower -- 117 5 -- Dakota -- 124 6 -- Anchor Bay -- 145 7 -- Henry Ford II -- 181 NEW TO THE TOP 21 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 02 -- NR -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- (12) 03 -- 68 -- Hannah Toner -- Rom -- (11) 07 -- NR -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 08 -- NR -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 11 -- NR -- Kayla Little -- Ike -- (12) 12 -- NR -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 15 -- 23 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) 16 -- 23 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) 18 -- NR -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 21 -- 25 -- Izabella Gowen -- Dak -- (10) DROPPED FROM TOP 21 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 23 -- 13 -- Jasmine Browning -- Reg -- (12) 24 -- 18 -- Katherine Greenberg -- ABay -- (10) 31 -- 07 -- Jillian Alongi -- ABay -- (12) 36 -- 17 -- Anna Getzinger -- LuNo -- (11) 39 -- 09 -- Mackenzie Steveler -- ABay -- (10) 42 -- 03 -- Mackenzie Rahn -- ABay -- (11) NR -- 02 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) -- NR -- 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) -- NR -- 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) -- NR -- 21 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) TOP FRESHMEN 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 07 -- NR -- Amanda Wood -- LuNo -- (9) 08 -- NR -- Madelyn Malczewski -- Rom -- (9) 12 -- NR -- Barrett Schettler -- Rom -- (9) 18 -- NR -- Sydney Goodrich -- Rom -- (9) 22 -- NR -- Olivia Morowski -- HFII -- (9) TOP 40 RETURNEES FROM 2015 WHO HAVE NOT RUN (NOT RANKED) 9/7 -- PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) 01 -- 01 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) -- NR -- 02 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) -- DNR meet NR -- 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) DNR meet NR -- 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) DNR meet 20 -- 20 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) -- NR -- 21 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) DNR meet 35 -- 35 -- Starr Schroeder -- Rich -- (12) -- NR -- 38 -- Emily Rhodes -- Dak -- (12) DNR meet Romeo, on the strength of three frosh entering the rankings, takes over the #1 team spot. Anchor Bay is probably ranked too low, not sure why they ran how they did at their first meet (also heard they have a hot frosh that did not run at the Mariner Invite) Individually, Pettibone from HFII looks to be healthy, has had 2 good runs already. With 5 frosh in the top 25, it will be interesting to see who develops and gets faster. |
August 25, 2016
Here is the preseason Boys' Top 35 (these are the end-of-season rankings from 2015 XC for returning runners, I did not adjust at all for track or summer results, or injuries). PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- 15 Time -- 15 CTY 01 -- Thomas Michno -- lcn -- (12) -- 966.5 -- *** 02 -- Michael Burley -- sh -- (12) -- 968.0 -- *** 03 -- Steven Stine -- fras -- (12) -- 976.0 -- ** 04 -- Jacob Schaldenbrand -- lcn -- (12) -- 978.0 -- ** 05 -- Nick Behring -- rom -- (11) -- 978.5 -- *** 06 -- Gabe Garbino -- utic -- (12) -- 979.0 -- *** 07 -- Alex Tonn -- lv -- (12) -- 983.0 -- *** 08 -- Chase Fedolak -- dak -- (12) -- 985.0 -- *** 09 -- Evan Tonn -- lv -- (12) -- 986.5 -- ** 10 -- Brennan Brothers -- ike -- (12) -- 990.0 -- ** 11 -- Peter Freeman -- lthnor -- (12) -- 991.5 -- ** 12 -- Brenden Allen -- arm -- (11) -- 998.0 -- ** 13 -- Michael Zedan -- abay -- (11) -- 1006.0 -- * 14 -- Jeffrey Hitchcock -- utic -- (10) -- 1009.5 15 -- Andrew Goodrich -- rom -- (11) -- 1012.0 -- * 16 -- Mitchell Macdonald -- dak -- (12) -- 1016.0 -- * 17 -- Logan Hefferan -- ike -- (12) -- 1017.0 -- * 18 -- Joshua Jaster -- dak -- (12) -- 1022.5 -- * 18 -- Zachary Macdonald -- dak -- (12) -- 1022.5 18 -- Ray Bell -- utic -- (11) -- 1022.5 21 -- Jared Folden -- sh -- (11) -- 1023.5 22 -- Alex Towianski -- ford -- (12) -- 1027.5 23 -- Austin Chambe -- ls -- (12) -- 1030.0 24 -- Brenden Parzynski -- lv -- (12) -- 1030.5 24 -- Brendan Mousseau -- dak -- (12) -- 1030.5 26 -- Jordan Hill -- ls -- (12) -- 1031.5 27 -- Justin Powell -- lc -- (11) -- 1038.5 28 -- Matthew Dinnan -- utic -- (12) -- 1040.0 29 -- Peter Caruso -- cv -- (11) -- 1041.0 30 -- Sawyer Kisha -- dak -- (12) -- 1041.5 31 -- Dylan Hanson -- ford -- (11) -- 1045.0 32 -- Zac Truman -- ike -- (11) -- 1050.5 33 -- Jarret St John -- rom -- (11) -- 1053.5 34 -- Omar Uddin -- sh -- (12) -- 1054.5 35 -- William Martin -- lthnor -- (12) -- 1055.0 *** First Team All-County 2015; ** Second Team 2015; * Third Team 2015 Dakota looks like the team to beat this year for County supremacy, with Utica, Lakeview, Romeo, and Eisenhower giving chase. Also an amazing 17 All-County runners return on the boys' side, as well as another runner who was all-county in 2014 (transfer ineligible last year). Note - Daniel Knapp (Lutheran North) did not run last year due to transfer rules, so he is not ranked. However, below is where he would rank using his 2014 times. PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- 14 Time 14 -- Daniel Knapp -- LuthNor -- -12 -- 1008 Here are the Preseason projections for the top seven teams, based on the rankings above. Boys: 1 -- 084 -- Macomb Dakota 2 -- 119 -- Utica 3 -- 126 -- SCS Lakeview 4 -- 134 -- Romeo 5 -- 164 -- Utica Eisenhower 6 -- 167 -- Sterling Heights 7 -- 204 -- Utica Ford II |
August 25, 2016
Here is the preseason Girls' Top 35 (these are the end-of-season rankings from 2015 XC for returning runners, I did not adjust at all for track or summer results, or injuries). PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- 15 Time -- 15 CTY 01 -- Karenna Duffey -- LCN -- (11) -- 1047.0 -- *** 02 -- Kennadi Rankin -- Ike -- (11) -- 1142.0 -- *** 03 -- Mackenzie Rahn -- ABay -- (11) -- 1184.5 -- ** 04 -- Hannah Faustyn -- Dak -- (10) -- 1202.0 -- ** 05 -- Lexie Jorgens -- Ike -- (11) -- 1202.5 -- ** 06 -- Betsy Lueck -- Reg -- (11) -- 1204.5 -- * 07 -- Jillian Alongi -- ABay -- (12) -- 1212.5 -- * 08 -- Michelle Ignatowski -- Reg -- (12) -- 1216.0 09 -- Mackenzie Steveler -- ABay -- (10) -- 1230.0 09 -- Paige Koehler -- CV -- (11) -- 1230.0 -- * 11 -- Megan Collins -- Ike -- (10) -- 1236.0 12 -- Allyson Slone -- Dak -- (12) -- 1239.5 13 -- Jasmine Browning -- Reg -- (12) -- 1242.0 14 -- Erin Golden -- Reg -- (11) -- 1251.0 15 -- Julia Knepper -- Rom -- (12) -- 1251.5 16 -- Sarah Klosi -- Fra -- (12) -- 1254.0 17 -- Anna Getzinger -- LuNo -- (11) -- 1256.5 18 -- Katherine Greenberg -- ABay -- (10) -- 1257.5 19 -- Alana Patterson -- LuNo -- (12) -- 1258.0 20 -- Victoria Mabbit -- Arm -- (11) -- 1263.5 21 -- Marisa Papadelis -- Stev -- (12) -- 1264.0 22 -- Emily Westphal -- ABay -- (12) -- 1265.5 23 -- Emily Schomaker -- LuNo -- (12) -- 1267.0 23 -- Julia Felts -- Utic -- (12) -- 1267.0 25 -- Izabella Gowen -- Dak -- (10) -- 1268.0 26 -- Sarah Shea -- HFII -- (11) -- 1278.0 27 -- Elena Miller -- CV -- (10) -- 1281.0 28 -- Andrea Barreto -- Ike -- (10) -- 1284.0 29 -- Sarah Luttenberger -- HFII -- (11) -- 1288.0 30 -- Megan Miller -- LuNo -- (12) -- 1292.5 31 -- Lilly Grochowski -- Rom -- (12) -- 1301.5 32 -- Alyse Weisenberger -- LaCr -- (11) -- 1304.5 33 -- Heather Luttenberger -- HFII -- (11) -- 1306.0 34 -- Gabby Louwers -- Reg -- (12) -- 1307.0 35 -- Starr Schroeder -- Rich -- (12) -- 1309.0 *** First Team All-County 2015; ** Second Team 2015; * Third Team 2015 Anchor Bay looks like the team to beat this year for County supremacy, with Regina, Eisenhower, Lutheran North, and Dakota giving chase. Also eight All-County runners return on the girls' side, including the defending champion in Duffey. Note: preseason picks for girls is tougher than for the boys, since Freshman runners often have a big impact on a Girl's team. It is much more rare for a Freshman Boy to have a similar impact, especially early in the year. A couple of good frosh could make almost any of the top girls' teams a title contender. Note - Four girls were not included in the rankings due to them not completing the 2015 season (from the County Meet forward) If healthy, they would be ranked as noted. PS -- NAME -- SCHL -- (GR) -- 15 Time 13 -- Elisabeth Pettibone -- HFII -- -12 -- 1240 15 -- Haley Turpin -- LCN -- -11 -- 1244 28 -- Madeline Yaek -- Rich -- -11 -- 1275 32 -- Megan Conant -- LV -- -12 -- 1288 Here are the Preseason projections for the top seven teams, based on the rankings above. Girls: 1 -- 059 -- Anchor Bay 2 -- 075 -- Warren Regina 3 -- 100 -- Utica Eisenhower 4 -- 130 -- Macomb Lutheran North 5 -- 165 -- Macomb Dakota 6 -- 185 -- Chippewa Valley 7 -- 204 -- Romeo |